Winter Outlook 2010/11

As an introduction, I will be releasing my own winter outlook for Canada and the US. I have based this on numerous winter outlooks which have been released, as well as knowledge on La Nina effects. Without further adue, here is my temperature outlook:

I expect the la nina effects to be felt the strongest on the Pacific coast. With an almost exact opposite as last year. There will be very little rain and very hot in the south, with cold wet weather felt in the northwest. Freezing elevations should be significantly lower than last year, with a couple snow events for the lower mainland of BC and into Seattle. The east on the other hand, should expect above normal temperature up and down the coast, especially in the south where winter shouldn't leave much of a mark. Further north however, temperatures may average out slightly above normal, but there will still be much more snowfall than last winter. In fact, even above average due to the storm track being further west and north than last year.

This shows the expected winter precip amounts across Canada and the US. Note the much drier conditions in the southwest, while the deep south could turn wet and warm. Gulf lows, colorado lows, and Alberta clippers will all follow through the great lakes region dumping a mixed bag of precip depending on your area. Anywhere north of highway 7 in Ontario through Algonquin-Parry Sound will get the most snow, while areas further south will still receive plenty of snow but with an increased risk of warm shots being pushed in from the gulf. Clippers passing through will start up the lake effect, and cool temperature across the Great Lakes allowing for cold snaps and small dry periods during these snaps. Overall though the ground shouldn't be green for any long periods of time in this region. In the Pacific northwest, expect very rainy and windy conditions throughout the winter. Ski resorts should offer plenty of fresh powder at any given time because of the favourable temperatures and storm track. Lower elevations should also be given a taste of winter, with at least 1 significant snowfall (10+cm) this year.

Finally, the snowfall accumulations expected across the continent. The mid Atlantic will have a very good setup this winter for some ice storm threats. Snow will be far less prevailent this winter than last years, as mentioned earlier it will all be to the north. Along the Appalachians should be within the more average snowfall totals, and the further south you go the less wintery precip you will find. In the southwest, snow will be almost non-existent save for maybe a snowfall or two in the mountains. Up in the pacific northwest, Expect favourable ski conditions in the mountains with much more snowfall than last year. The Great lakes will be an interesting scene with most places seeing primarily snow throughout the winter, with a few mixed and rain events, but snow will be a much more common scene. The great plains and up into the prairies should be relatively normal, except in the southern plains where there will be some very significant temperature swings between rain ice and snow. One thing is for sure though, and that is winter is approaching fast, so be ready.
-Jpearson