Update on Big Storm

The low currently tracking in from the Central Plains has been a very difficult system to predict. From an all snow maker, to an all rain maker and then to the middle. As of right now, models are beginning to show that the storm could potentially yet again head further south. The further south it goes, the more snow we will get. The first map shows the cone of where the storm could possibly go, further north the less snow, further south the more. Second map shows expected precip totals.

The red cone indicates potentially where the storm centre could go. the blue circle is the current projected storm centre track.

Totals will be extremely varied. Again, it is highly track dependent as there is the chance the storm track will remain far enough south that Southern Ontario gets mostly snow. Either way, the storm will be very messy, and recommended that tomorrow be an inside day. If you must travel, do so very carefully.

A Mid December Super Duper Ultra Mega Hyper Awesome Snowstorm Potential!

Well winter has been relatively uneventful in many areas in Southern Ontario, save of course for the lucky folks who received a winters worth of snow already in 4 days. Now for the big picture; there is a snowstorm potential this weekend. It will come stacked onto a base of about 5cm from a passing clipper this Friday.

This storm is a little difficult to track at the moment because of how early it is. In my thought, however, based on the most likely track of these storms, these are some snow guesstimates. Rain is possible, if not likely, in Montreal, with heaviest snow in Ottawa likely. The further west and north it moves, the worse off we'll be. (Meaning more rain) Right now, i'd say Cornwall should be right along the mix line, and anywhere west should stay snow.

Keep in mind, these are early guesses. Easily changable at this point depending on storm track. This storm system could potentially split into 2 systems, one affecting the Windsor area, hence the higher snowfall amounts, and the big snowfall, the main one in the east. The heavy snow region in the east will be quite narrow. So while it may extend well over to Cobourg, areas just west may receive relatively meager amounts, while areas further east may in fact get well over a foot. Finally, the last map depicts the storm tracks to help clear up confusion. Cross your fingers for this to be all snow!!

Final Storm Take

I wasn't expecting so much of a warm push with this system initially. Turns out to be more rain than I had thought. There is hope for an upcoming snowstorm on Dec. 4-6. Still far out to monitor closely. Big lake effect following this system starting when the cold air fills back in behind the system some point tomorrow morning. Watch out areas around Georgian Bay, Barrie initially and drifting into Huntsville by late afternoon. Flurries could extend to the GTA, as well as a Lake Ontario flurry band around Kingston.

Where is Winter??

Arriving shortly if you're worried. After a brief warm-up on Monday and Tuesday, expect seasonal temperatures on Wednesday. Thursday could be interesting. An Alberta Clipper system will be dragging plenty of cold air behind it, opening the gateway to colder temperatures and leaving us in a stormy pattern for the time being. The system itself, could be a mixed bag of precip. Based on current observations, this is what we can expect:

As you can see, it is very dependent on temperatures. This could rely on anything from the position of the jet stream, storm track, and distance from the lakeshores. The further south the storm track, the better because the northern flank of the system will have the most snow. On the backside of the low, mostly everywhere should get some flurries at least as the system departs. There is a possible all snow maker on the time frame of December 5-6. Will monitor these storms closely.

Winter Outlook 2010/11

As an introduction, I will be releasing my own winter outlook for Canada and the US. I have based this on numerous winter outlooks which have been released, as well as knowledge on La Nina effects. Without further adue, here is my temperature outlook:

I expect the la nina effects to be felt the strongest on the Pacific coast. With an almost exact opposite as last year. There will be very little rain and very hot in the south, with cold wet weather felt in the northwest. Freezing elevations should be significantly lower than last year, with a couple snow events for the lower mainland of BC and into Seattle. The east on the other hand, should expect above normal temperature up and down the coast, especially in the south where winter shouldn't leave much of a mark. Further north however, temperatures may average out slightly above normal, but there will still be much more snowfall than last winter. In fact, even above average due to the storm track being further west and north than last year.

This shows the expected winter precip amounts across Canada and the US. Note the much drier conditions in the southwest, while the deep south could turn wet and warm. Gulf lows, colorado lows, and Alberta clippers will all follow through the great lakes region dumping a mixed bag of precip depending on your area. Anywhere north of highway 7 in Ontario through Algonquin-Parry Sound will get the most snow, while areas further south will still receive plenty of snow but with an increased risk of warm shots being pushed in from the gulf. Clippers passing through will start up the lake effect, and cool temperature across the Great Lakes allowing for cold snaps and small dry periods during these snaps. Overall though the ground shouldn't be green for any long periods of time in this region. In the Pacific northwest, expect very rainy and windy conditions throughout the winter. Ski resorts should offer plenty of fresh powder at any given time because of the favourable temperatures and storm track. Lower elevations should also be given a taste of winter, with at least 1 significant snowfall (10+cm) this year.

Finally, the snowfall accumulations expected across the continent. The mid Atlantic will have a very good setup this winter for some ice storm threats. Snow will be far less prevailent this winter than last years, as mentioned earlier it will all be to the north. Along the Appalachians should be within the more average snowfall totals, and the further south you go the less wintery precip you will find. In the southwest, snow will be almost non-existent save for maybe a snowfall or two in the mountains. Up in the pacific northwest, Expect favourable ski conditions in the mountains with much more snowfall than last year. The Great lakes will be an interesting scene with most places seeing primarily snow throughout the winter, with a few mixed and rain events, but snow will be a much more common scene. The great plains and up into the prairies should be relatively normal, except in the southern plains where there will be some very significant temperature swings between rain ice and snow. One thing is for sure though, and that is winter is approaching fast, so be ready.
-Jpearson